Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
